3.4 Figures

Each modelled species gets its own chapter with results. All results are display in a graphical format.

3.4.1 Estimated number of birds

The results start with a figure showing the estimated number of birds an observer would encounter at an average point on an average site during the first period. The line displays the point estimate for each year. This is the most likely value for the average number of birds. The three ribbons display the uncertainty around this point estimate. They are, from small/dark to wide/light, the 30%, 60% and 90% credible intervals. These numbers in the figure are always based on the non-linear model (1.1). The caption indicates whether the model is non-linear and how strong the linear trend is.

3.4.2 Indices

An index is a change compared to a baseline. This baseline is typically the estimate for some reference winter. E.g we use 2014 as a baseline and compare 2015 with 2013 or 2016 with 2014. However we cannot use the figure with 2014 as baseline to compare 2015 with 2016. For that we need a figure with either 2015 or 2016 as baseline. To facilitate any pairwise comparison among years, we display one figure for every winter using that winter as baseline.

3.4.3 Index raster

Currently a separate index figure for each reference winter is doable since the data contains only 5 winters. The number of index figures will grow over the years, making it harder to interpret them. The third plot summarises the information on a raster. The x axis holds the winter we want to interpret. The y axis holds the reference winter The dots given the relative change from the baseline (y axis) to the other winter (x axis). Their colour indicates the strength of the change. Stronger changes have darker dots, white dots indicate no change. Red dots indicate a decrease from the baseline, blue dots an increase. A baseline with all red (blue) dots indicates the winter with the largest (smallest) numbers. The shape of the dots indicates the classification of the effect. Informative dots (significant or non-significant but stable) get solid shapes.

Table 2.4: Average yearly change according to a linear model. Model indicates with model is appropriate. L a linear model is best, NL a non-linear model is best. NL? a non-linear is possibly better. euring scientific french class model change 15910 Passer domesticus Moineau domestique ++ NL 24.5%, (18.0%; 31.3%) 13120 Phylloscopus trochilus Pouillot fitis + NL? 14.7%, (4.6%; 26.1%) 1860 Anas platyrhynchos Canard colvert + L 12.7%, (1.1%; 25.6%) 3670 Perdix perdix Perdrix grise + NL? 9.1%, (2.8%; 15.8%) 11870 Turdus merula Merle noir + NL? 8.0%, (5.8%; 10.2%) 9920 Hirundo rustica Hirondelle rustique + NL 7.2%, (1.4%; 13.4%) 16360 Fringilla coelebs Pinson des arbres + NL 6.8%, (4.5%; 9.2%) 10990 Erithacus rubecula Rougegorge familier + NL? 6.4%, (1.8%; 11.3%) 6840 Streptopelia decaocto Tourterelle turque + L 5.8%, (1.3%; 10.5%) 12770 Sylvia atricapilla Fauvette a tete noire + L 5.0%, (2.1%; 8.1%) 14640 Parus major Mesange charbonniere + NL 4.5%, (0.9%; 8.4%) 6700 Columba palumbus Pigeon ramier + NL 3.8%, (1.4%; 6.3%) 13110 Phylloscopus collybita Pouillot veloce ~ L 2.6%, (-0.7%; 5.9%) 15670 Corvus corone Corneille noire ~ NL? 2.3%, (-0.3%; 5.1%) 9760 Alauda arvensis Alouette des champs ~ L 2.0%, (-0.3%; 4.4%) 10660 Troglodytes troglodytes Troglodyte mignon ~ NL? 1.8%, (-1.7%; 5.4%) 18570 Emberiza citrinella Bruant jaune ~ NL? 0.4%, (-3.8%; 4.7%) 3940 Phasianus colchicus Faisan de Colchide ~ NL? 0.3%, (-3.2%; 4.0%) 5926 Larus michahellis Goeland leucophee - L -16.5%, (-30.3%; -0.0%) 16400 Serinus serinus Serin cini ?+ L 12.3%, (-3.5%; 30.9%) 15600 Corvus monedula Choucas des tours ?+ L 9.9%, (-1.9%; 23.1%) 5820 Larus ridibundus Mouette rieuse ?+ L 9.6%, (-4.6%; 26.1%) 8760 Dendrocopos major Pic epeiche ?+ L 8.4%, (-0.7%; 18.5%) 13150 Regulus ignicapilla Roitelet a triple bandeau ?+ L 7.2%, (-5.4%; 21.7%) 18820 Emberiza calandra Bruant proyer ?+ NL? 6.2%, (-1.8%; 14.8%) 14790 Sitta europaea Sittelle torchepot ?+ L 5.0%, (-4.1%; 15.0%) 16600 Linaria cannabina Linotte melodieuse ?+ NL? 4.9%, (-0.5%; 10.6%) 15820 Sturnus vulgaris Etourneau sansonnet ?+ NL 4.8%, (-0.8%; 10.6%) 16490 Chloris chloris Verdier d’Europe ?+ L 4.6%, (-4.3%; 14.6%) 16530 Carduelis carduelis Chardonneret elegant ?+ L 4.2%, (-2.6%; 11.7%) 10170 Motacilla flava Bergeronnette printaniere ?+ L 4.2%, (-2.8%; 11.8%) 15490 Pica pica Pie bavarde ?+ L 3.9%, (-2.3%; 10.5%) 12000 Turdus philomelos Grive musicienne ?+ L 3.7%, (-0.5%; 8.0%) 10840 Prunella modularis Accenteur mouchet ?+ L 3.6%, (-3.8%; 11.6%) 11040 Luscinia megarhynchos Rossignol philomele ?+ NL? 3.3%, (-3.1%; 10.2%) 7240 Cuculus canorus Coucou gris ?+ L 2.9%, (-4.9%; 11.5%) 12750 Sylvia communis Fauvette grisette ?+ L 2.7%, (-3.3%; 9.2%) 14620 Cyanistes caeruleus Mesange bleue ?+ L 2.4%, (-1.5%; 6.4%) 10200 Motacilla alba Bergeronnette grise ?+ L 1.9%, (-5.0%; 9.3%) 15390 Garrulus glandarius Geai des chenes ?- L -2.2%, (-9.0%; 5.3%) 15630 Corvus frugilegus Corbeau freux ?- NL -6.9%, (-18.0%; 5.7%) 14400 Poecile palustris Mesange nonnette ? L 5.9%, (-8.3%; 22.9%) 17170 Coccothraustes coccothraustes Grosbec casse-noyaux ? NL? 5.6%, (-7.0%; 20.4%) 1870 Certhia brachydactyla Grimpereau des jardins ? L 4.8%, (-6.8%; 18.2%) 12670 Sylvia melanocephala Fauvette melanocephale ? NL? 3.0%, (-16.4%; 27.4%) 4290 Fulica atra Foulque macroule ? NL? 2.3%, (-11.7%; 18.8%) 11210 Phoenicurus ochruros Rougequeue noir ? L 1.7%, (-12.8%; 19.0%) 12020 Turdus viscivorus Grive draine ? L 1.2%, (-8.9%; 12.6%) 2870 Buteo buteo Buse variable ? L 0.9%, (-7.2%; 9.9%) 8561 Picus viridis Pic vert ? L -0.1%, (-7.2%; 7.6%) 3040 Falco tinnunculus Faucon crecerelle ? L -0.3%, (-11.1%; 12.2%) 12260 Cisticola juncidis Cisticole des joncs ? NL -0.9%, (-13.7%; 13.7%) 12760 Sylvia borin Fauvette des jardins ? L -1.2%, (-12.7%; 12.0%) 4240 Gallinula chloropus Gallinule poule-d’eau ? L -1.6%, (-13.4%; 12.1%) 11390 Saxicola rubicola Tarier patre ? L -1.8%, (-16.5%; 15.7%) 6870 Streptopelia turtur Tourterelle des bois ? L -2.2%, (-10.4%; 7.0%) 15080 Oriolus oriolus Loriot d’Europe ? L -2.3%, (-18.3%; 16.8%) 12430 Acrocephalus schoenobaenus Phragmite des joncs ? NL? -2.4%, (-12.4%; 8.8%) 4930 Vanellus vanellus Vanneau huppe ? NL -2.5%, (-11.4%; 7.2%) 2380 Milvus migrans Milan noir ? NL -2.9%, (-15.4%; 11.6%) 12200 Cettia cetti Bouscarle de Cetti ? NL? -5.4%, (-19.4%; 10.7%) 1220 Ardea cinerea Heron cendre ? L -5.7%, (-16.4%; 6.5%)