3.1 Table with linear trends
Part II starts with table 2.4 which lists the linear trend for all species.
‘model’ indicates which model is best based on WAIC.
L
indicates that the trend is linear, which implies that the change is constant.
A trend is linear when the linear model has a lower WAIC than the non-linear model.
NL
indicates that the trend is non-linear.
The change between consecutive years is not constant.
Thus one should interpret the given linear change with caution.
A trend is non-linear when the WAIC of the non-linear model is more than 2 units smaller than that of the linear model.
When the WAIC of the non-linear model is less than 2 units smaller than the linear model, we state that the model is possibly non-linear.
This is indicated as NL?
.
Trends of non-linear models are best interpreted based on the trend figures.